The rise in house prices in China: Bubbles or fundamentals?
将中国房价分解为基本面和非基本面成分，采用半参数方法估计投机成分，发现非基本面部分对房价上涨贡献较小。
The dramatic rise of house prices in many cities of China has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. There is a huge debate on whether the increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or just by speculation. Like Levin and Wright (1997a, 1997b), we decompose house prices in China into fundamental and non−fundamental components. We also consider potential nonlinear feedback from the historical growth rate of house prices on the current house prices and propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the speculative components in the model. We demonstrate that the non−fundamental part contributes a relatively small proportion of the rise of house prices in China.