US Metropolitan Area Resilience: Insights from dynamic spatial panel estimation
使用动态空间面板模型预测2008-2014年美国大都市区就业的反事实路径，与实际就业对比衡量危机冲击，检验产业结构差异是否导致韧性不同。
In this paper, we show that the economic crisis commencing in 2007 had different impacts across US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and seek to understand why differences occurred. The hypothesis of interest is that differences in industrial structure are a cause of variations in response to the crisis. Our approach uses a state-of-the art dynamic spatial panel model to obtain counterfactual predictions of Metropolitan Statistical Area employment levels from 2008 to 2014. The counterfactual employment series are compared with actual employment paths in order to obtain Metropolitan Statistical Area-specific measures of crisis impact, which then are analysed with a view to testing the hypothesis that resilience to the crisis was dependent on Metropolitan Statistical Area industrial structure.