The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938
本文利用1750-1938年英国数据，构建银行业危机年表，通过向量自回归发现危机与经济增长短期急剧下降相关，并用叙事法处理内生性，验证结果稳健。
This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record to identify plausibly exogenous variation, we show that this finding is robust to potential endogeneity.