Do Macroforecasters Herd?
研究发现，常见的从众行为检验会因预测者之间的分歧源于噪声或信息刚性而错误地显示从众，对美国1981-2013年通胀和产出增长预测数据的检验不支持从众行为。
Abstract We show that typical tests of whether forecasters herd will falsely indicate herding behavior for a variety of types of behavior and forecasting environments that give rise to disagreement among forecasters. We establish that forecasters will appear to herd if differences between them reflect noise as opposed to private information, or if they arise from informational rigidities. Noise can have a behavioral interpretation and if so will depend on the behavioral model under consideration. An application of the herding tests to U.S. quarterly survey forecasts of inflation and output growth data 1981–2013 does not support herding behavior.