Consumer Surplus from Energy Transitions
开发了一种识别需求曲线的新方法，估算了过去两百多年供暖、交通和照明带来的消费者剩余，发现某些能源转型（如交通和照明）带来的福利增长巨大，而供暖技术增长有限，且未来能源转型对消费者的益处可能不如过去。
Energy transitions have led to major advances in human wellbeing. However, little evidence exists about the scale of the net benefits. By developing a new method for identifying the demand curve, this paper estimates the consumer surplus associated with heating, transport and lighting over more than two hundred years and identifies the gains from key energy transitions. For certain energy transitions, the increase was dramatic, reflecting the transformations in society and lifestyles that mobility and illumination provided in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Yet, the net benefits related to heating technologies only rose modestly. Finally, due to saturation effects of the demand for energy services, future technological developments and energy transitions may benefit consumers (though not necessarily society as a whole) less than those in the past.