The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata
利用微观数据分析了美国常规和非常规石油在钻井、完井和生产三个环节对价格的响应，发现钻井弹性最大，非常规供应因单井产量高而总体响应更大，模拟显示页岩革命使供应响应扩大13倍。
We analyze the price responsiveness of U.S. conventional and unconventional oil supply across three key stages of oil production: drilling, completion, and production. Drilling is the most important margin, with price elasticities of 1.3 and 1.6 for conventional and unconventional drilling respectively. Well productivity declines as prices rise, implying smaller net supply elasticities of about 1.1 and 1.2. Despite similar supply elasticities, the price response of unconventional supply is larger in terms of barrels because of much higher production per well (∼10x initially). Oil supply simulations show a 13-fold larger supply response due to the shale revolution. The simulations suggest that a price rise from $50 to $80 per barrel induces incremental U.S. production of 0.6MM barrels per day in 6 months, 1.4MM in 1 year, 2.4MM in 2 years, and 4.2MM in 5 years. Nonetheless, the response takes much longer than the 30 to 90 days than typically associated with the role of “swing producer.”