统计显著性与证据的二分法

Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence

Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2017
被引 170 · 同刊同年前 7%
ABS 4

中文导读

回顾非统计专业研究者误用p值的问题,并新发现统计学家也倾向于根据p值是否低于0.05将证据二分,导致解释错误,最后提出建议。

Abstract

In light of recent concerns about reproducibility and replicability, the ASA issued a Statement on Statistical Significance and p-values aimed at those who are not primarily statisticians. While the ASA Statement notes that statistical significance and p-values are “commonly misused and misinterpreted,” it does not discuss and document broader implications of these errors for the interpretation of evidence. In this article, we review research on how applied researchers who are not primarily statisticians misuse and misinterpret p-values in practice and how this can lead to errors in the interpretation of evidence. We also present new data showing, perhaps surprisingly, that researchers who are primarily statisticians are also prone to misuse and misinterpret p-values thus resulting in similar errors. In particular, we show that statisticians tend to interpret evidence dichotomously based on whether or not a p-value crosses the conventional 0.05 threshold for statistical significance. We discuss implications and offer recommendations.

统计学心理学研究方法科学哲学元科学