Allocating Scarce Organs: How a Change in Supply Affects Transplant Waiting Lists and Transplant Recipients
利用1987-2013年美国移植数据，研究发现器官供给增加会吸引更多患者加入等待名单并减少活体移植，但供给冲击仍能提高移植后存活率。
Vast organ shortages motivated recent efforts to increase the supply of transplantable organs, but we know little about the demand side of the market. We test the implications of a model of organ demand using the universe of US transplant data from 1987 to 2013. Exploiting variation in supply induced by state-level motorcycle helmet laws, we demonstrate that each organ that becomes available from a deceased donor in a particular region induces five transplant candidates to join that region's transplant wait list, while crowding out living-donor transplants. Even with the corresponding demand increase, positive supply shocks increase post-transplant survival rates.