A Bayesian Quantile Time Series Model for Asset Returns
提出一种灵活的贝叶斯时变转换模型，可同时计算似然函数和分位数函数，用于股票、指数和商品收益的估计与预测。
We consider jointly modeling a finite collection of quantiles over time. Formal Bayesian inference on quantiles is challenging since we need access to both the quantile function and the likelihood. We propose a flexible Bayesian time-varying transformation model, which allows the likelihood and the quantile function to be directly calculated. We derive conditions for stationarity, discuss suitable priors, and describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference. We illustrate the usefulness of the model for estimation and forecasting on stock, index, and commodity returns.