Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models
提出数据驱动的识别约束，解决非信息先验下DSGE模型估计的多峰问题，并用Smets-Wouters模型验证该方法能消除参数冗余导致的多峰后验分布。
Abstract We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters ( ) model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.