Government Credit, a Double‐Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank
利用国家开发银行专有数据，研究发现国开行对国企的工业贷款会挤出同行业私企但带动下游私企，而基础设施贷款则带动私企。
ABSTRACT Using proprietary data from the China Development Bank (CDB), this paper examines the effects of government credit on firm activities. Tracing the effects of government credit across different levels of the supply chain, I find that CDB industrial loans to state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) crowd out private firms in the same industry but crowd in private firms in downstream industries. On average, a $1 increase in CDB SOE loans leads to a $0.20 decrease in private firms' assets. Moreover, CDB infrastructure loans crowd in private firms. I use exogenous timing of municipal politicians' turnover as an instrument for CDB credit flows.