EXPLORING THE USEFULNESS OF A NONRANDOM HOLDOUT SAMPLE FOR MODEL VALIDATION: WELFARE EFFECTS ON FEMALE BEHAVIOR*
探讨如何通过选择与估计样本在政策维度上显著不同的非随机保留样本，来增强经济模型预测环境大变化影响的可信度，对从事政策评估和模型选择的学者有参考价值。
A particularly challenging use of decision‐theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a “nonrandom holdout sample,” a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is meant to forecast, can be fruitful.