Catastrophe Aversion and Risk Equity in an Interdependent World
扩展了Keeney关于灾难厌恶与风险公平冲突的经典结论，将独立风险假设放宽至相互依赖风险，推导出在风险相关时公平与灾难性之间的关系，对理解现实世界中的灾难事件有重要意义。
Catastrophe aversion and risk equity are important concepts both in risk management theory and practice. Keeney [Keeney RL (1980) Equity and public risk. Oper. Res. 28(3):527–534] was the first to formally define these concepts. He demonstrated that the two concepts are always in conflict. Yet his result is based on the assumption that individual risks are independent. It has therefore limited relevance for real-world catastrophic events. We extend Keeney’s result to dependent risks and derive the conditions under which more equity and more correlation between two risks imply a more catastrophic situation. We then generalize some of the results for multiple correlated risks. This paper was accepted by Manell Baucells, decision analysis.