The Local Economic Impacts of Military Personnel
研究了1988至2000年间美国军事人员缩减对本地劳动力、住房和产品市场的影响，发现人员减少导致就业下降，但人口快速调整，工资变化小，租金大幅下降，工人福利成本低。
I evaluate the local economic impacts of contractions in US military personnel between 1988 and 2000. I propose a novel empirical strategy combining the synthetic control and instrumental variables methods and estimate the causal effects on the equilibrium quantities and prices of local labor, housing, and product markets. Contractions in military personnel substantially reduced local civilian employment; however, local populations adjusted quickly, mainly through reduced in-migration, resulting in small changes in wages and large declines in rental prices. Relating these empirical findings to a simple spatial equilibrium model, I show that the welfare cost for workers is small.