不确定性丰富领域:源函数及其实验实现(网络附录)

Web-Appendix of: The Rich Domain of Uncertainty: Source Functions and Their Experimental Implementation.

American Economic Review · 2010
被引 1
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

提出源方法,通过区分不同不确定性来源并定义主观概率,定量分析模糊态度,实验让数据说话而不预设特定态度。

Abstract

ABSTRACT. In economic decisions we often have to deal with uncertain events for which no probabilities are known. Several normative models have been proposed for such decisions. Empirical studies have usually been qualitative, or they estimated ambiguity aversion through one single number. This paper introduces the source method, a tractable method for quantitatively analyzing uncertainty empirically that can capture the richness of ambiguity attitudes. The theoretical key in our method is the distinction between different sources of uncertainty, within which subjective (choice-based) probabilities can still be defined. Source functions convert those subjective probabilities into willingness to bet. We apply our method in an experiment, where we do not commit to particular ambiguity attitudes but let the data speak.

源函数不确定性模糊态度主观概率