The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: A Structural Approach
构建了一个包含储蓄、投资组合选择和退休决策的动态随机模型，利用意大利养老金改革的外生变化估计模型，发现养老金改革对退休决策有显著财富效应，且改革时间越晚对家庭福利损害越大。
Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.