DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY
通过设计蒙提霍尔问题的新变体，发现自动化概率合并能将理性选择比例从约40%提升至80%以上，表明贝叶斯更新失败是导致非理性行为的关键原因。
We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure.