Housing Price Dynamics, Mortgage Credit and Reverse Mortgage Demand: Theory and Empirical Evidence
研究了房价与反向抵押贷款需求之间的相互作用，利用HECM贷款数据量化风险，发现房价上涨促使老年房主通过反向抵押贷款锁定房屋净值收益，并预测了不同经济情景下的贷款规模。
Abstract This article presents some theoretical and empirical approaches for identifying interactions among fundamental economic variables that determine housing prices. Using home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) loan‐level data, this study quantifies the major risks of reverse mortgages and shows that higher housing prices induce higher demand for reverse mortgages among elderly homeowners. Senior citizens rationally hold pessimistic expectations about future housing price appreciation and lock in their home‐equity gains by obtaining reverse mortgages, which in turn led to the substantial HECM growth prior to the financial crisis of 2008. A novel simulation also forecasts HECM loans under various economic scenarios. From a mortgage credit perspective, these findings generate several policy implications for the implementation of “HECM 3.0.”