Absence-Neglect and the Origins of Great Strategies
本文提出高层管理者存在“忽视缺失”的认知偏差，即更关注存在而非缺失，这导致大胆战略虽可能带来巨大成功，但也常引发灾难性失败，并探讨了如何通过平衡感知来降低风险。
Great business strategies originate in a top management worldview that seeks to implement bold strategic change in the external world. This worldview generates confident strategic actions capable of producing extreme success. However, it also generates catastrophic failures and lower returns on average. This is because action-oriented managers pay abnormal attention to the observables of sense experience while neglecting the world of absence, a bias I refer to as absence-neglect. Absence-neglect is the cognitive tendency to notice presence more than absence—for example, movement more than stillness and noise more than silence. This paper examines the origins of absence-neglect and its consequences for strategy formation, firm performance, and social welfare. I argue that societies can reduce the economic and moral risks of “great” strategies by cultivating a more balanced discernment of presence and absence.