MONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
研究货币政策不确定性及其传导机制与经济波动的关系，提出新期限结构模型，发现不确定性对经济活动有负面影响，且不同历史时期通胀对不确定性冲击的反应不同。
Abstract We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first‐order effect on their dynamics. The data favor a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and the term premium. Uncertainty contributes negatively to economic activity. Two dimensions of uncertainty react in opposite directions to a shock to the real economy, and the response of inflation to uncertainty shocks varies across different historical episodes.