Putting It Off for Later: Procrastination and End of Fiscal Year Spending Spikes
研究了政府财政年末支出激增现象，利用英国数据反驳了预防性储蓄的解释，提出拖延行为是驱动因素，并校准了一种时变预算税来平滑支出、提高效率。
Abstract Many governments around the world exhibit heightened spending at the end of the fiscal year. These end of fiscal year spending spikes often concern policy makers due to their tendency to result in lower quality spending. This paper uses UK data to offer evidence against the precautionary savings explanation for spending spikes. An alternative explanation is offered with procrastination driving heightened end of fiscal year spending. A new technique of time‐variant budgetary taxes is calibrated to the model, and it is shown to be effective for smoothing spending and improving spending efficiency throughout the fiscal year.