The Tourism and Economic Growth Enigma: Examining an Ambiguous Relationship through Multiple Prisms
研究了113个国家1995-2014年的数据，按经济、政治和旅游维度聚类，发现旅游与经济增长的关系因国家类型而异：发展中国家、非民主、高官僚、低旅游专业化国家多为经济驱动旅游增长，而强经济、民主、高政府效率国家存在双向关系。
This article revisits the ambiguous relationship between tourism and economic growth, providing a comprehensive study of destinations across the globe which takes into account the key dynamics that influence tourism and economic performance. We focus on 113 countries over the period 1995 to 2014, clustered, for the first time, around six criteria that reflect their economic, political, and tourism dimensions. A panel vector autoregressive model is employed, which, in contrast to previous studies, allows the data to reveal any tourism-economy interdependencies across these clusters, without imposing a priori the direction of causality. Overall, the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis seems to prevail in countries which are developing, nondemocratic, highly bureaucratic and have low tourism specialization. Conversely, bidirectional relationships are established for economies that are stronger, democratic and with higher levels of government effectiveness. Thus, depending on the economic, political, and tourism status of a destination, different policy implications apply.