Social Protection, Household Size, and Its Determinants: Evidence from Ethiopia
研究埃塞俄比亚生产性安全网计划对家庭规模的影响，发现参与该计划使家庭规模增加0.3人，但生育率下降8.1个百分点，增加来自12-18岁女孩数量，原因是家庭推迟了少女出嫁。
We provide new evidence on the impact of social protection interventions on household size and the factors that cause the household size to change: fertility, child fosterage, and in and out migration related to work and marriage. Using data from an intervention delivered at scale, Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), we find that participation in the PSNP leads to an increase in household size of 0.3 members. We find no evidence that PSNP participation increases fertility and some evidence that fertility is reduced, specifically it reduces the likelihood that an adult female member gives birth by 8.1 percentage points. We reconcile this seemingly divergent findings by showing that the increase in household size arises from an increase in the number of girls aged 12 to 18 years. We present evidence that this occurs because the PSNP causes households to delay marrying out adolescent females.