Looking back at the future: Dynamics of collective expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany & Spain
通过分析1992-2015年德国和西班牙的媒体报道，研究了光伏技术集体期望的兴衰动态，发现两国在期望破灭阶段分别表现为对技术盈利能力的悲观和对整体经济的担忧，且国家政策对期望形成有重要影响。
The widespread diffusion of new technologies is often preceded by hypes, that is periods of a strong rise and subsequent fall in collective expectations, which are usually followed by disappointment. In this study, we focused on the multilevel nature of collective technological expectations and analysed the dynamics of expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany and Spain over the period of 19922015 by conducting a media analysis. Our results indicate that a hype and subsequent phase of disappointment with regard to photovoltaic technology occurred in both countries. However, the results also suggest that these, and particularly the phase of disappointment, were associated with different levels of expectations: while the Spanish hype was followed by a period of pessimism with regard to the profitability of the technology, the disappointment in Germany was dominated by the fear that the technology would negatively affect the economy as a whole. Furthermore, the results allow researchers to gain a better understanding of the interactions among technological expectations and policies, and suggest that, in both countries, national policies played a key role in supporting the formation of positive as well as negative expectations.