Evaluating irrigation investments in Malawi: economy‐wide impacts under uncertainty and labor constraints
研究利用综合模型评估马拉维灌溉投资的回报，发现经济回报不足以覆盖成本，但灌溉在提高粮食安全、减少贫困和降低气候变化脆弱性方面的非货币收益使其对改善小农户生计有价值。
Abstract Irrigation expansion is critical to increase crop yields and mitigate effects from climate change in Sub‐Saharan Africa, but the low profitability has led to little irrigation investments in the region so far. Using an integrated modeling framework, we simultaneously evaluate the returns to irrigation arising from both economic and biophysical impact channels to understand what determines the profitability of irrigation in Malawi. Our results confirm that the returns to irrigation cannot cover the costs in Malawi. While labor‐intensive irrigation expansion leads to unfavorable structural change in the short‐run, the profitability hinges on low irrigated yields that fall far from expectations due to insufficient input use and crop management techniques. On the other hand, we find that the nonmonetary benefits of irrigation regarding higher food security, lower poverty, and reduced vulnerability to climate change make investments in irrigation worthwhile to improve the livelihoods of smallholders.