Financialised internationalisation and structural hierarchies: a mixed-method study of exchange rate determination in emerging economies
结合访谈和时间序列计量,研究巴西外汇市场汇率决定,发现货币国际化和金融化通过等级制的国际货币体系影响新兴经济体汇率。
This paper conducts an extensive mixed-method study of exchange rate determination in the Brazilian foreign exchange market. It combines semi-structured interviews with foreign exchange market participants in Brazil and London and advanced time-series econometrics. In line with Post Keynesian theory and critical realist ontology, the interviews uncover the context-specific expectations and underlying processes and structures that condition exchange rate dynamics in Brazil and emerging economies more generally. The results point to important structural changes in Brazil’s financial integration in the form of currency internationalisation and financialisation. Moreover, they show that this internationalisation has been mediated through a structured and hierarchic international monetary system which fundamentally distinguishes exchange rate drivers in emerging economies from those in developed ones.