On the future of macroeconomic models
金融危机后DSGE模型表现不佳，本文主张保留其基础并改进，同时提出应发展五种不同类型的宏观经济模型，分别服务于不同目的。
Macroeconomics has been under scrutiny as a field since the financial crisis, which brought an abrupt end to the optimism of the Great Moderation. There is widespread acknowledgement that the prevailing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models performed poorly, but little agreement on what alternative future paradigm should be pursued. This article is the elaboration of four blog posts that together present a clear message: current DSGE models are flawed, but they contain the right foundations and must be improved rather than discarded. Further, we need different types of macroeconomic models for different purposes. Specifically, there should be five kinds of general equilibrium models: a common core, plus foundational theory, policy, toy, and forecasting models. The different classes of models have a lot to learn from each other, but the goal of full integration has proven counterproductive. No model can be all things to all people.