The causal impact of migration on US trade: Evidence from political refugees
利用美国各州2008-2013年数据，通过难民安置的外生性识别移民对贸易的因果效应，发现移民增加10%使原籍国进口增1.0%、出口增0.8%。
Abstract Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across US states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on US exports and imports. I address endogeneity and reverse causality by exploiting the exogenous allocation of political refugees within the US refugee resettlement program that prevents immigrants from choosing the destination location. I find that a 10% increase in recent immigrants to a US state raises imports from those immigrants’ country of origin by 1.0% and exports by 0.8%.