DSGE models: still useful in policy analysis?
讨论DSGE模型在货币和财政政策分析中的实用性,认为尽管金融危机暴露了其弱点,但改进后的DSGE模型仍将是政策机构的核心工具。
This paper discusses the usefulness of DSGE models in monetary and fiscal policy analysis. While the recent crisis has exposed some weaknesses in these models, I argue that DSGE models currently have few contenders to replace them as core models in the policy process. The prominent role for forward-looking behaviour and their simplicity make DSGE models very suitable for policy analysis. In addition, DSGE models are flexible enough to be used for many purposes, while other models are often more limited in terms of the questions they can address. As a result, I argue that improved DSGE models—modified to take the lessons of the recent crisis into account—will remain as a workhorse tool in many policy institutions for a long time to come.