The financial system and the natural real interest rate: towards a ‘new benchmark theory model’
针对2008年金融危机暴露的宏观经济模型缺陷，提出在基准模型中引入金融摩擦，以解释危机成因、缓慢复苏及政策应对，并探讨了杠杆金融机构和期限偏好对自然实际利率的影响。
The 2008 financial crisis revealed serious flaws in the models that macroeconomists use to research, inform policy, and teach graduate students. In this paper we seek to find simple additions to the existing benchmark model that might let us answer three questions. What caused the boom and crisis? Why has the recovery been slow? And, how should policy respond to that slow recovery? We argue that it is necessary to add financial frictions to the benchmark model. This allows us to study the effects of leveraged financial institutions, and of a yield curve based on preferred habitats. Such features will cause endogenous changes in the natural real interest rate and the spread between that interest rate and the rate which influences expenditure decisions. They are likely to radically change the way in which the model responds to shocks. We point to some promising models that incorporate these features.