A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
构建了一个中等规模的半结构时间序列模型，将通胀分解为长期预期锚定的趋势、菲利普斯曲线和能源价格临时波动三个成分，发现稳定趋势和陡峭菲利普斯曲线与数据一致，但潜在产出自新千年以来下降，能源价格还通过独立预期渠道影响总体通胀。
Abstract We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel.