Forecasting China’s Carbon Intensity: Is China on Track to Comply with Its Copenhagen Commitment?
通过预测中国能源消费碳排放，评估在常规情景下能否实现2020年碳强度比2005年下降40%-45%的哥本哈根承诺，发现仅下降33%，需额外减排努力。
In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China’s carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.