U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis
研究了美国经济不确定性对12个欧盟国家商业周期的影响，发现只有在包含全球金融危机时期时，美国不确定性才显著预测欧盟商业周期。
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of the U.S. economic uncertainty on the business cycles (changes in the industrial production) of 12 European Union (EU) countries before and during the global financial crisis. Empirical tests are conducted using the linear and non‐linear causality tests, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. Results show ample evidence of causality from the U.S. uncertainty to EU business cycles only when the crisis period is included in the analysis. Both the linear and non‐linear tests confirm the significance of U.S. uncertainty as a short‐term predictor of business cycles of the EU.