Uncertainty and the Great Slump†
本文研究经济政策不确定性对英国两次世界大战期间经济的影响，通过历史记录和基于报纸构建的不确定性指数，发现不确定性是经济波动的重要来源。
Abstract This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the results suggest that uncertainty was an important source of economic fluctuations in Britain between the wars.