Technological catching-up, sales dynamics, and employment growth: evidence from China’s manufacturing
利用1998-2007年中国制造业企业数据，研究发现企业生产率增长（过程创新）与就业增长负相关，但相对生产率水平通过复制动态长期促进就业，销售增长则显著补偿了技术进步的劳动节约效应。
This article investigates the microeconomics of employment dynamics, using a Chinese manufacturing firm-level data set over the period 1998–2007. It does so in the light of a scheme of “circular and cumulative causation,” whereby firms’ heterogeneous productivity gains, sales dynamics and innovation activities ultimately shape the patterns of employment dynamics. Using firm’s productivity growth as a proxy for process innovation, our results show that the latter correlates negatively with firm-level employment growth. Conversely, relative productivity levels, as such a general proxy for the broad technological advantages/disadvantages of each firm, do show positive effect on employment growth in the long-run through replicator-type dynamics. Moreover, firm-level demand dynamics play a significant role in driving employment growth, which more than compensate the labor-saving effect due to technological progress. Finally, and somewhat puzzlingly, the direct effects of product innovation and patenting activities on employment growth appear to be negligible.