The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data
基于大型历史面板数据，研究发现当利率处于或接近零下限时，政府支出乘数可高达1.5，而在正常时期则很小且统计上不显著。
Summary Based on a large historical panel dataset, this paper provides evidence that the government spending multiplier can be significantly higher when interest rates are at or near the zero lower bound (ZLB). We estimate multipliers that are as high as 1.5 during ZLB episodes but small and statistically indistinguishable from zero during normal times. Our results are robust to different definitions of ZLB episodes, alternative ways of identifying government spending shocks, controlling for the exchange rate regime, and other potentially important state variables. In particular, we show that the difference in multipliers is not driven by multipliers being higher during periods of economic slack.