The Hot Hand in Professional Darts
利用近一年职业飞镖锦标赛的167492次投掷数据，通过状态空间模型分析投掷表现的序列依赖性，发现潜在状态过程存在微弱的热手效应，但证据不充分。
Summary We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.