THE SAVING RATE IN JAPAN: WHY IT HAS FALLEN AND WHY IT WILL REMAIN LOW*
利用可计算一般均衡模型分析日本人口结构变化和全要素生产率对储蓄率的影响，发现1990-2000年间储蓄率下降9个百分点中，人口因素贡献了2-3个百分点，且未来将持续压低储蓄率。
Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is larger and more rapid than other OECD countries. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan's national saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model demographic factors account for 2–3 percentage points of the 9% decline in the saving rate between 1990 and 2000 and persistently depress the saving rate in future years.