Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa
研究发现，非洲局部地区小麦和玉米产量越高，暴力冲突反而越多，而非粮食短缺导致冲突，这对理解气候变化与冲突的关系有重要启示。
Abstract Scholars debate whether climate change has a consistent effect on the likelihood of armed conflict in Africa. One major pathway by which climatic variability is hypothesized to increase conflict is by decreasing food availability. However, limitations on food access at both the local and national levels in many developing African countries force most armed groups and communities to depend on locally‐produced food. These actors are therefore likely to use violence to establish control over more food resources or be stationed where more food is available, suggesting that food abundance might also be driving conflict. The present study employs novel data on wheat and maize yields in Africa measured at the very local level to empirically evaluate this hypothesis on a highly disaggregated conflict indicator. To account for the endogenous relationship between conflict and food production, average local levels of drought are used as an instrument. The findings show that, contrary to previous expectations, conflict is driven by higher yields, on average, and not by scarcity.