Discount Rates of Children and High School Graduation
通过实验测量878名儿童的折现率，发现折现率越高（越不愿等待更大奖励）的孩子高中毕业概率越低，折现率每增加一个标准差，毕业概率下降4个百分点，且该效应独立于行为问题、学业成绩等因素。
We present direct evidence that children who are unwilling to wait for a larger reward and instead prefer a small one earlier (i.e. they have a higher discount rate) are less likely to graduate from high school. Using an incentivised experiment to measure the discount rates of 878 children, we find large effects on human capital accumulation - a one standard deviation increase in the discount rate decreases the probability of graduating from high school by four percentage points. Importantly, the impact of a child's discount rate is distinct from behavioural problems (e.g. disciplinary referrals), academic achievement, risk attitudes, demographics and household environment. Consistent with the existence of non-pecuniary costs to finishing high school, impatient children with poor academic achievement are significantly less likely to graduate than impatient children with high achievement.