Modeling and Forecasting Regional Tourism Demand Using the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) Model
该研究引入贝叶斯全局向量自回归模型，对东南亚九国国际旅游流进行建模和预测，发现该模型能捕捉区域间旅游需求的溢出效应，且预测效果优于其他三种VAR模型。
Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. An empirical study of international tourist flows in nine countries in Southeast Asia demonstrates the ability of the BGVAR model to capture the spillover effects of international tourism demand in this region. The study provides clear evidence that the BGVAR model consistently outperforms three other alternative VAR model versions throughout one- to four-quarters-ahead forecasting horizons. The potential of the BGVAR model in future applications is demonstrated by its superiority in both modeling and forecasting tourism demand.