News Shocks, Business Cycles, and the Disinflation Puzzle
研究发现，关于未来技术的新闻冲击导致宏观经济负联动和反通胀的结论，源于全要素生产率测量误差；采用稳健识别方法后，负联动消失，反通胀之谜基本解决，且新闻冲击近年成为经济周期波动的重要驱动因素。
Abstract We argue that key findings of the empirical literature on the effects of news about future technology—including their tendency to generate negative comovement of macro‐economic aggregates, and their puzzling disinflationary nature—are due to measurement errors in total factor productivity (TFP). In this paper, we estimate the macro‐economic effects of news shocks in the United States using an agnostic identification approach that is robust to measurement errors. We find no evidence of negative comovement conditional on a news shock, and the disinflation puzzle essentially vanishes under our identification strategy. Our results also indicate that news shocks have become an important driver of business‐cycle fluctuations in recent years.