提升财政空间:与GDP挂钩的债务和更长期限的作用

Boosting fiscal space: the roles of GDP-linked debt and longer maturities

Economic Policy · 2020
被引 13
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

评估了发行与GDP挂钩的债务和更长期限债务相比短期债务如何帮助在给定基本收支路径下扩大财政空间,通过降低违约风险和借贷成本提高可持续债务水平。

Abstract

SUMMARY This paper assesses how issuance of GDP-linked debt and longer-maturity debt, in comparison to short-term debt, can help boost fiscal space for a given path of primary balances. By explicitly linking debt service to repayment capacity, GDP-linked debt helps to stabilize the debt ratio under growth uncertainty and reduces default risk through risk sharing with investors. Longer-maturity nominal debt also helps reduce default risk via state-contingent variation in the market price of debt. Reduced default risk in both cases lowers borrowing costs and results in higher maximum sustainable debt levels (and fiscal space given initial debt) for a given path of primary balances. Simulation results suggest sizable gains in fiscal space from the introduction of these instruments, though debtor moral hazard could militate against these benefits.

GDP挂钩债务长期债务财政空间违约风险