WHICH FISCAL MULTIPLIERS ARE REGIME‐DEPENDENT? A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS
通过元回归分析98项实证研究中的1800多个乘数估计值，发现经济衰退期间政府支出乘数显著提高约0.7-0.9个单位，而税收乘数不受经济体制影响且通常更低。
Abstract We analyse whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn. For that purpose, we conduct a meta‐regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regime‐dependence of the multiplier. We find that spending multipliers are much higher (by about 0.7–0.9 units) during a downturn. Tax multipliers are not sensitive to the economic regime, and generally lower than spending multipliers. Finally, for all spending categories other than government consumption, the multiplier significantly exceeds one during downturns.