CIGARETTE TAXES AND ILLICIT TRADE IN EUROPE
研究了欧洲香烟高税率对非法香烟贸易的影响，发现税收增加会显著提升非法香烟的市场份额和销量，对政策制定者评估控烟与税收平衡有参考价值。
Cigarettes are highly taxed in Europe, but at higher prices some consumers substitute more toward illicit cigarettes. The illicit retail trade in cigarettes (IRTC) includes counterfeit, untaxed, and smuggled cigarettes. Some existing literature includes claims that taxes are not an important determinant of IRTC. Using data from the European Union, we find the opposite: raising prices leads to substantial increases in IRTC. A €1 increase in tax/pack is expected to increase illicit market share by 5 to 12 percentage points and increase illicit cigarette sales by 29% to 95%. The results are robust to alternative specifications and data.