CREDIT RATING AND DEBT CRISES
研究了存在展期风险时信用评级的均衡理论，发现评级机构会加剧高违约风险时期的风险，降低低风险时期的风险。
Abstract We develop an equilibrium theory of credit rating in the presence of rollover risk. By influencing rational creditors, ratings affect sovereigns' probability of default, which in turn affects ratings. Our analysis reveals a pro‐cyclical impact of credit rating: In equilibrium the presence of a rating agency increases default risk when it is high and decreases default risk when it is low.