Life Cycle Models and Forecasting Growth and Profitability
研究发现，按企业生命周期阶段分析能比按行业或整体经济分析更准确地预测盈利能力和增长，尤其对初创和衰退期企业及不确定性高的企业效果更好，且分析师未充分利用生命周期信息，但管理层预测中不存在此问题。
ABSTRACT Mean reversion in profitability and growth is a well-documented phenomenon; however, comparatively less is known about the level of analysis that best captures mean reversion. In this study, we find that analyzing firms by life cycle stage improves the out-of-sample accuracy of profitability and growth forecasts over analyzing firms pooled across the economy and analyzing firms by industry. The improved accuracy is robust to both short-term and long-term forecasts of profitability and growth. We also find that the improvement in accuracy of forecasts from life cycle analyses is greatest for firms in the introduction and decline stages and for firms with greater uncertainty. Finally, we examine market participants' use of life cycle information in forming expectations. We find inefficient use of life cycle information in analyst forecasts, but not in management forecasts. We also find that life cycle forecasts are associated with year-ahead abnormal stock returns.