The Importance of Tax Adjustments When Evaluating Wage Expectations*
研究发现德国学生低估实际工资18%，主要源于对累进所得税的误解；调整税收预期后，误差降低12个百分点，且误差与年龄、性别、工作经验等因素相关。
Abstract Using elicited expectations of future gross salaries, we evaluate characteristics causing German students to make larger or smaller estimation errors. While students seem to underestimate actual salaries by 18 percent, we show that these errors are highly attributable to misconceptions of the progressive income tax. Developing a suitable adjustment procedure, we correct students’ estimates and find that errors decline by 12 percentage points. Conducting regression analyses, we reveal strong connections with students’ age, gender, work experience, secondary school track, and knowledge about student loans. These results change notably if not controlling for students’ misconceptions of the tax system.