The long-term impact of Italian colonial roads in the Horn of Africa, 1935–2015
利用意大利占领埃塞俄比亚期间修建的道路网络作为准自然实验，发现这些道路使附近地区在2010年左右人口更多、城市化更高、夜间灯光更亮，且这种优势因殖民后政府设施的过度供给而持续存在。
Abstract This article exploits the quasi-natural experiment provided by the extensive road network that was built across the Horn of Africa during the Italian occupation of Ethiopia (1936–1941), to examine how a first-mover advantage in transportation can affect the spatial distribution of economic activity in developing countries over the long run. The results show that Italian paved roads rendered areas located within 10 km of them significantly more populated, urbanized and luminous around 2010, relative to comparable, more distant locations. Early roadbuilding lifted first-mover locations out of isolation and allowed for net welfare gains, thanks to a reduction in transport costs and specialization. To this day, first-mover locations continue to diverge from the control group, due to a coordination mechanism that led to an oversupply of governmental facilities in the post-colonial period.