Testing the Efficacy of Replacing the Incurred Credit Loss Model with the Expected Credit Loss Model
通过实验室实验，比较已发生信用损失模型与预期信用损失模型在准备金决策和盈余管理上的效果，发现新模型提高了准备金充足性，但盈余管理效应因薪酬方案而异。
We use a controlled laboratory environment to provide evidence on the potential efficacy of the replacement of the Incurred Credit Loss (ICL) Model of International Accounting Standard (IAS 39) by the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model of IFRS 9 to account for credit impairment losses. We focus on the simplified version of the ECL model using an uncertain production environment as the context. We induce incentives consistent with the existing rigid rule-based ICL model and the proposed forward-looking principle-based ECL model. Our primary finding is that the combined effects of eliminating the minimum ‘probable’ threshold condition together with allowing managers to incorporate forward-looking information increase both the amount and adequacy of periodic reserve decisions. In addition, we analyze the effects of increased flexibility under the new credit-loss model on earnings management using three different compensation schemes. We find that while the replacement of the ICL model with the ECL model facilitates higher reserves, the resulting increased earnings management varies across compensation schemes, is less than predicted, and does not offset the potential of the ECL model’s positive effects. The results provide ex ante evidence on the likely intended and unintended consequences of implementing the ECL model.